Trump's Hawkish Stance Boosts US Dollar Index, Copper Prices Under Pressure Overnight [SMM Copper Morning Comment July 17]

Overnight, LME copper opened at $9,748/mt, initially hitting a session high of $9,749.5/mt amid fluctuations. It then declined to a session low of $9,626/mt, with a slight rebound and consolidation at the end of the trading session, ultimately closing at $9,664/mt, down by 1.06%. Trading volume reached 23,000 lots, and open interest stood at 320,000 lots.

The most-traded SHFE copper 2408 contract opened at 78,730 yuan/mt, initially declining to a session low of 78,280 yuan/mt, then rising to a session high of 78,850 yuan/mt, and consolidating at the end of the trading session, ultimately closing at 78,610 yuan/mt, down by 0.95%. Trading volume reached 41,000 lots, and open interest stood at 180,000 lots.

Macro-wise, US June retail sales data exceeded expectations, marking the largest increase in three months. Meanwhile, Trump stated he would not replace Fed Chairman Powell before the end of his term and does not wish to cut interest rates before November, causing the US dollar index to surge and putting pressure on copper prices.

Fundamentally, the recent trend of destocking continues, with a decrease in the proportion of registered imported copper. Market supply of some spot goods is tightening, with sellers holding firm on prices, while downstream procurement remains cautious. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain at high levels.